What is insider signal grading?

Questions people ask

What is insider signal grading?

Insider signal grading is the practice of characterising each public insider disclosure with a neutral, methodology-driven band before the outcome is known, then recording that band permanently so its accuracy can be measured. InsiderScope grades filings from 12 regulators as Score A to Score D.

What is a PDMR notification?

A PDMR notification is the disclosure filed when a Person Discharging Managerial Responsibilities, typically a director or senior executive, transacts in their own company's securities. Under EU MAR Article 19, UK MAR and equivalent frameworks such as the US Form 4 regime, it must be published to the market within short statutory deadlines.

What does the Score A to Score D scale mean?

Score A to Score D are four bands of a 0 to 100 descriptive score. A higher band means the disclosure is more consistent with the non-routine patterns documented in the academic literature. The bands are not recommendations, carry no directional meaning, and ignore any individual's circumstances.

How is grading different from a directors' dealings feed?

A feed republishes the filing. A grade characterises it, is timestamped before the outcome is known, and is written to an append-only record. A feed cannot be wrong; a grade can, which is what makes the methodology falsifiable in public.

Are insider buys predictive of future returns?

Research by Lakonishok and Lee (2001), Jeng, Metrick and Zeckhauser (2003) and Cohen, Malloy and Pomorski (2012) documents population-level statistical relationships between certain non-routine insider purchases and subsequent returns. Those are historical patterns across large samples, not forecasts for any individual disclosure.

How is grading accuracy verified?

Every published band is written to the forward-performance record with its matured outcome, including the misses. Wilson score confidence intervals are published once a band has accrued enough matured signals, and a public counter shows how far the record has to go until then.

Which filing facts does the grading read?

The structural facts of the disclosure: the role of the person disclosing, whether the transaction sits inside a routine calendar pattern or outside it, whether several insiders disclosed within the same window, and the size of the transaction relative to the person's holding.

When are confidence intervals published for a band?

Only once that band has accrued enough matured signals to support them. Until the threshold is reached a public counter shows how many matured signals are still missing, and the interval stays unpublished rather than being estimated from a thin sample.

Is the same methodology used across all 12 regulators?

Yes. Each regulator publishes under its own framework and deadline, and InsiderScope normalises them into one schema so a Swedish insynsanmälan, a German Directors' Dealings notification and a US Form 4 are characterised on the same scale. Every source carries a public release state, and filings from a source that is not live are not graded.